Dating committee members

How does the committee determine the date of a peak?

In determining the date of a peak in activity, it waits until it is confident that a recession has occurred. Even in the event that activity began to rise again immediately after the announcement of a peak, the committee would find that a new expansion was underway, and the upturn would not be a continuation of the previous expansion.

How does the NBER’s business cycle dating committee identify turning points?

FAQs and additional information on how the NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies turning points The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions.

How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?

The committees approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. In making its peak and trough announcements, it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology.

How does the Committee date the quarterly peak?

In dating the quarterly peak, the committee relies on real GDP and real GDI as published by the BEA, and on quarterly averages of key monthly indicators. Quarterly real GDP and real GDI peaked in 2019Q4.

When does the committee determine the peak and trough of expansion?

As a result, the committee tends to wait to identify a peak until a number of months after it has actually occurred. Similarly, in determining the date of a trough, the committee waits until it is confident that an expansion is underway.