Dating committee members
Index
- How does the NBER’s business cycle dating committee identify turning points?
- How does the committee determine the date of a peak?
- How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?
- What is the NBER business cycle chronology?
- How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?
- When do you change the date of a business cycle turning point?
- When do you change the date of a business cycle turning point?
- How does the committee determine the date of a peak?
- When is it time to realign the committee structure?
How does the NBER’s business cycle dating committee identify turning points?
FAQs and additional information on how the NBERs Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies turning points The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions.
How does the committee determine the date of a peak?
In determining the date of a peak in activity, it waits until it is confident that a recession has occurred. Even in the event that activity began to rise again immediately after the announcement of a peak, the committee would find that a new expansion was underway, and the upturn would not be a continuation of the previous expansion.
How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?
The committees approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. In making its peak and trough announcements, it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology.
What is the NBER business cycle chronology?
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions. A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point.
How does the committee determine the dates of turning points?
The committees approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. In making its peak and trough announcements, it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology.
When do you change the date of a business cycle turning point?
A: Since 1978, when the Business Cycle Dating Committee was created, there have not been any changes to previously-announced business cycle turning points. Prior to 1978, there were some revisions in turning points; see this article. We would change the date of a past peak or trough if we concluded that the date previously chosen was incorrect.
